European Central Bank President Lagarde: Labor cost growth will slow down.Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.Iraqi security forces destroyed eight extremist strongholds in northern Iraq. On December 12, local time, the Iraqi Joint Operations Command issued a statement saying that Iraqi security forces are continuing to track and crack down on members of the extremist organization "Islamic State" in the country. Recently, in the hamlin Mountains in Kirkuk province, Iraqi security forces destroyed eight extremist strongholds, including personnel hiding places and weapons storage facilities. (CCTV News)
Angola's national consumer prices rose by 28.41% year-on-year in November.WTI crude oil futures fell below $70/barrel, down 0.43% in the day; Brent crude oil fell 0.43% in the day to $73.05/barrel.After the release of US economic data, traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut next year, and US short-term interest rate futures narrowed and fell earlier.
Royal Bank of Canada: The European Central Bank may move towards negative real interest rate. Royal Bank of Canada BlueBay Asset Management said that the European Central Bank may cut the interest rate below 2% next year, which the agency estimated to be a short-term neutral interest rate. Kaspar Hense, senior portfolio manager of the institution, said in a report that the core inflation rate is expected to be around 2.5% in the first half of 2025, which means that the real interest rate will be negative. He said that under the influence of unfavorable factors such as trade, continuous competitive pressure from other countries and financial problems, this should play a moderate supporting role in the economy.NATO Secretary General Rutte: We will need to spend far more than 2% of GDP on national defense.The US Secretary of State met with Jordan's King and Deputy Prime Minister to discuss the situation in Gaza and Syria. On December 12, local time, the State Council issued a statement saying that US Secretary of State Blinken met with Jordan's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Overseas Chinese Affairs Assafadi and Jordan's King Abdullah II in Aqaba that day, and discussed issues such as reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, ensuring the release of all detainees, providing humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians in all parts of Gaza and the situation in Syria. Blinken said that the United States supports the Syrian-led political transition. Blinken said that Syria must take all measures to protect civilians and promote the entry of humanitarian aid. Abdullah II reiterated that Jordan respects the choice of the Syrian people, but also stressed the importance of maintaining Syria's security and protecting its citizens. In addition, Abdullah II stressed that the first step to achieve a comprehensive ceasefire in the region is to stop Israeli attacks on Gaza. Abdullah II pointed out that achieving this goal requires immediate and serious international action. The meeting also discussed efforts to strengthen the humanitarian response to Gaza. Talking about the situation in the West Bank, Abdullah II warned the danger of Israel's unilateral actions and condemned Israel's continued attacks on Jerusalem and other places. He once again stressed that the "two-state solution" is the only way to achieve a just and comprehensive peace and the key to preventing the region from falling into more conflicts. (CCTV News)
Strategy guide
12-14
Strategy guide
12-14